Thursday, September 28, 2006

Politics Update

It looks as if we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the current government as the political situation in Serbia becomes clearer.

The rough timescale of events will be as follows - the finalisation of the new Serbian constitution, a referendum on the constitution in October / November and finally elections in December / January.

President Tadic and PM Kostunica have agreed on this loose timescale and are also close to agreement on the form the new government might take. In plainspeak this means who gets what ministries. Some are speculating that Kostunica may actually remain Prime Minister and in return Tadic will be backed by Kostunica and his satellite parties in the Presidential elections. Talks are ongoing and who gets what will be influenced by the election result.

The Serbian Radical Party is also playing ball and is being consulted before the final text of the constitution is written up and brought before Parliament.

What does this mean in terms of Serbia's short to medium term future? Almost certainly another 'democratic' government which should be comfortably in place before Kosovo is proclaimed conditionally independent. This government will likely serve a full term.

In terms of party politics it signifies the return of the Democratic Party to government as the leading reformist party as they will receive the lions share of votes from the democratic block voters. However, it also means an almost amazing turn around in fortune for Kostunica and his DSS. It looked as if his favourite pet project, the constitution, was dead in the water but he may well toast success now. This, coupled with funds from the NIP, will allow him to build up some momentum before the election date and perhaps allow him to steal a few points away from rival parties. If his DSS manage 15 percent they will be delighted.

The Radicals have no interest in power at this point - harbouring no desire to be governing whilst Kosovo goes independent. They thus sacrifice their chances of governing for a further 4 years. Of course they reserve the right to take to the streets on Kosovo and to perhaps try to topple the government that way. Still, its interesting to speculate about how the Serbian Radical Party will look at the election after next. If the democratic block does throw its full weight behind Tadic at the Presidential elections the Radicals will likely face further electoral defeat.

Smaller parties, such as Cedomir Jovanovic's LDP may enter parliament, ironically also due to the constitution. LDP will bitterly campaign against the constitution due to the clauses naming Kosovo an integral part of Serbia.

But for once it looks like events are conspiring in Serbia to produce a more positive outcome.

PS Where Mladic fits into all this is anyones guess. Thinking off the top of my head it might be seen as potentially risky to deal with it now - meaning that the most likely (or optimally the best) time to locate and arrest will be in January.

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12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

This blog is boring. Spice it up!

6:27 pm  
Blogger Bg anon said...

Thanks, but currently dont have time to do so!

3:07 pm  
Blogger Kristian said...

I disagree with anonymous, plus there is never enough time.

7:58 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello, what a great post. I wanted to inform you about this site I came across that delves into the power of people using video technology to record human rights abuse. They recently posted on a topic I thought you'd be interested in regarding use of video for conflict resolution in the former-Yugoslavia: http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2006/11/06/former-yugoslavia-can-video-play-a-part-in-truth-justice-and-reconciliation/

6:43 pm  
Blogger Shaina said...

I don't agree with "anonymous" either. Bg anon, what happened to the Belgrade Blog? I thought it changed URLs, but I can't find it anymore.

2:11 am  
Anonymous Daniel said...

Anonymous,

it might be boring for you because you are probably looking for blogs that celebrate Srebrenica massacre,

this blog doesn't seem to do so, so it might be boring for you, but it's not boring for us.

9:54 pm  
Anonymous Princip said...

I wouldn´t say "boring", i would say yet another self hating Soros-infected quisling blogger.

As for the "massacre" in Srebrenica, i suppose you all agree that the 3000 Serbian civilians prior deserved to be murdered by Oric & Co just as their relatives in the ww2 before them? A

Take your fascist "western values" and go where the depleated uranium bombs that destroyed Yugoslavia came from.

8:49 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The use of force against Serbs was never successful; we respond to friendship. This is our heritage, given to us by our ancestors.

(Vojislav Kostunica, Serbian Prime Minister)

Next month there are general elections in Serbia. The latest opinion surveys suggest 37 per cent of voters will support the nationalist and anti-EU Radical party. It's leader, Vojislav Seselj, is currently standing trial in The Hague.

32 per cent of the voter population will back Serbian president Boris Tadic's pro-western Democratic Party. This means that the balance of power will likely be held by Vojislav Kostunica, the outgoing prime minister, and leader of the nationalist DSS.

read more at plastic.com

10:33 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Today Serbia is led by CIA agents who want to betray Serbian land, history and culture for a photo opportunity in front of a EU flag in Zagreb or Berlin. Dr Karadzic is in jail because he fought to liberate us from genocide and must be thinking, like Christ did, why have his people betrayed him? Which of our current so called leaders is willing to lead the fight to liberate Kosovo and Krajina?

3:45 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Only CIA?

12:25 pm  
Anonymous TamaricaMica said...

they destroyed our country and now they a robbing us, how you can say it's boring, there was never boring time in serbia, here, only the truth is boring!!!

12:01 am  
Anonymous Igrice 450 said...

If you ever get bored in Serbia, yo can easily open news paper and check what government prepared you for the day. There has never been boring time in Serbia!!!!

4:33 pm  

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