Tuesday, July 25, 2006

An interesting and novel phenomenon in recent days has people scratching their heads.
Nobody can remember when the value of the dinar went up or at least maintained its value for a period perhaps Ante Markovic's government managed this feat.

All kinds of speculation going on, some are saying that the strength of the dinar has less to do with domestic factors and more to do with the weakness of the Euro. That casual observation is likely wide of the mark since the dinar is holding its own against the pound and the dollar too.
Others cynically maintain that the central bank of Serbia has been intervening to keep the value of the dinar high. Also unlikely since if the central bank was able to do this successfully it would have done it months or years ago.

Then you have some voices in business who have sounded the alarm that this is bad for the balance of payments situation - making imports cheaper and exports more expensive. Serbia is already in the red as far the export-import ratio is concerned they caution. This is a valid point although only if the value of the dinar is overpriced for lengthy period of time.

My take on the dinar situation differs from the cynics. It seems to me a positive development - for the first time in recent memory confidence has returned to the dinar and people are getting used to the idea of it appreciating and depreciating in value as normal currencies on world exchanges do. Many people in Serbia after receiving their wages in dinars immediately visit the exchange office thus further influencing the downward trend in value of the dinar but now they are thinking twice.

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