Tuesday, July 25, 2006

An interesting and novel phenomenon in recent days has people scratching their heads.
Nobody can remember when the value of the dinar went up or at least maintained its value for a period perhaps Ante Markovic's government managed this feat.

All kinds of speculation going on, some are saying that the strength of the dinar has less to do with domestic factors and more to do with the weakness of the Euro. That casual observation is likely wide of the mark since the dinar is holding its own against the pound and the dollar too.
Others cynically maintain that the central bank of Serbia has been intervening to keep the value of the dinar high. Also unlikely since if the central bank was able to do this successfully it would have done it months or years ago.

Then you have some voices in business who have sounded the alarm that this is bad for the balance of payments situation - making imports cheaper and exports more expensive. Serbia is already in the red as far the export-import ratio is concerned they caution. This is a valid point although only if the value of the dinar is overpriced for lengthy period of time.

My take on the dinar situation differs from the cynics. It seems to me a positive development - for the first time in recent memory confidence has returned to the dinar and people are getting used to the idea of it appreciating and depreciating in value as normal currencies on world exchanges do. Many people in Serbia after receiving their wages in dinars immediately visit the exchange office thus further influencing the downward trend in value of the dinar but now they are thinking twice.

3 Comments:

Blogger Cvijus011 said...

Hey Bg Anon,

Thanks for your invitation to participate at your new Blog and will join you as co-blogger. You need to send me an invitation on my e-mail: cvijus@gmail.com
I like the whole concept of the blog and I believe it should be complementary to Belgradeblog. For Serbia Blog we should work out the layout and design, I know only to add the links on the templates (I'm a idiot conserning with operating on computers) so maybe Viktor could help us out. Anyway, on Monday I will be in Belgrade for a couple of days, so if you need some help, let me know.
Now don't worry that we have very few visitors lately on Belgrade Blog, it's the summer season and many are away from their PC's, being on the beach or just like me studying for the exams (wish me luck for Friday, I have Macroeconomics). So it's the season and I'm not that worried.

As far sa B92 is concerned, we could make a good advertisement of Belgrade Blog by adding the link to our signatures (I hope Dejan restak won't mind)
Btw, have you read my own article in B92 in the section Putujemo u Evropu? The article is called Studije u Srbiji ili u Inostranstvu.

Cheers

2:24 pm  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here are some links that I believe will be interested

5:28 am  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here are some links that I believe will be interested

1:57 pm  

Post a Comment

<< Home

free web page hit counter