Politics Update

It looks as if we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the current government as the political situation in Serbia becomes clearer.

The rough timescale of events will be as follows - the finalisation of the new Serbian constitution, a referendum on the constitution in October / November and finally elections in December / January.

President Tadic and PM Kostunica have agreed on this loose timescale and are also close to agreement on the form the new government might take. In plainspeak this means who gets what ministries. Some are speculating that Kostunica may actually remain Prime Minister and in return Tadic will be backed by Kostunica and his satellite parties in the Presidential elections. Talks are ongoing and who gets what will be influenced by the election result.

The Serbian Radical Party is also playing ball and is being consulted before the final text of the constitution is written up and brought before Parliament.

What does this mean in terms of Serbia's short to medium term future? Almost certainly another 'democratic' government which should be comfortably in place before Kosovo is proclaimed conditionally independent. This government will likely serve a full term.

In terms of party politics it signifies the return of the Democratic Party to government as the leading reformist party as they will receive the lions share of votes from the democratic block voters. However, it also means an almost amazing turn around in fortune for Kostunica and his DSS. It looked as if his favourite pet project, the constitution, was dead in the water but he may well toast success now. This, coupled with funds from the NIP, will allow him to build up some momentum before the election date and perhaps allow him to steal a few points away from rival parties. If his DSS manage 15 percent they will be delighted.

The Radicals have no interest in power at this point - harbouring no desire to be governing whilst Kosovo goes independent. They thus sacrifice their chances of governing for a further 4 years. Of course they reserve the right to take to the streets on Kosovo and to perhaps try to topple the government that way. Still, its interesting to speculate about how the Serbian Radical Party will look at the election after next. If the democratic block does throw its full weight behind Tadic at the Presidential elections the Radicals will likely face further electoral defeat.

Smaller parties, such as Cedomir Jovanovic's LDP may enter parliament, ironically also due to the constitution. LDP will bitterly campaign against the constitution due to the clauses naming Kosovo an integral part of Serbia.

But for once it looks like events are conspiring in Serbia to produce a more positive outcome.

PS Where Mladic fits into all this is anyones guess. Thinking off the top of my head it might be seen as potentially risky to deal with it now - meaning that the most likely (or optimally the best) time to locate and arrest will be in January.

tags: politics, elections, Serbia, constitution

Battle for third mobile operator begins / NIP

Somewhat sooner than expected, the Serbian government announced that the license for the third mobile phone operator, to compete against Telenor and state owned MTS, would be granted before the end of the year.

The news suggests that the Serbian government did a good job in selling Mobitel to Telenor since some observers claimed that part of that contract would be to give the winner at least 6 months of 'breathing space' before having to compete against a third rival.

As previously stated the starting price for the license will be 320 million Euros. Potential bidders include France Telecom, Oraskom (Egypt), Deutch Telekom (Germany), Telefonika (Spain), KPN Mobile (Holland) and Mobilkom. For now there is no word from mobile giant Vodaphone who have an agreement with Mobilkom not to compete on the same market.

The favourites must be Mobilkom who want to be present on the Serbian market as part of their wider regional strategy. But the same is true for Deutch Telekom (T-Mobile).

For now most analysts are keeping silent on how much they believe the government will bank but government sources suggest that any sum over 500 million Euros will be highly satisfactory.

And much of that total will be ploughed into the National Investment Plan which is a smart strategy for governing DSS since polls suggest that the Serbian voting public is rather keen on the NIP. Rather predictably the IMF have been sounding the alarm bells on the same issue. They claim that the money could be more wisely spent and are worried about the potential inflationary pressure on the economy.

It is crucial that funds from the NIP are wisely spent since there are only a few more large scale privatisations left to be carried out in Serbia - such as NIS (Oil Industry of Serbia). And one must be wary of the government tending to spend money on projects they believe will increase their popularity rather than benefit the country in the longer term.
However, many of the projects, particularly relating to infrastructure are necessary and long overdue. The current government may be fortunate to find itself in this position but if the money is well spent the current government will deserve to be remembered positively, on this issue at least.

Media Roundup - The Dreaded M(ladic) Word

The man who never seems far from the headlines - Ratko Mladic is again the subject of conjecture in the Serbian media.

The latest speculation seems to centre around an alleged Russian connection. Namely, during the Bosnian war Mladic appears to have bought weapons from the chief of Russian State Security Stjepasin. And yesterday it materialised that one of Mladic's right hand men, Marko Lugonja was arrested just minutes before his flight was due to take off - bound for Moscow. One version claims that Lugonja had already boarded the airplane but men in suits burst into the aircraft and then detained him. The other, preferred by Lugonja, is that he was stopped at passport control.
The operation was co-ordinated by the Special War Crimes Prosecutor Vukcevic in conjunction with the security agency BIA.

Either way the event was something of a fiasco since although Lugonja was meant to appear in court soonish, he still had the use of his passport and was technically was free to travel. Its not immediately clear why this occurred but with the Serbian record of letting suspects flee, hardly surprising.

Logonja now claims that the whole incident was set up with the intention of impressing the 'internationals' and Carla Del Ponte. As in many shady episodes in the Balkans there may be some truth in this - but of course this doesn't mean he didnt intend to flee.

Another Hague indictee Goran Hadzic is also (somewhat suspiciously) making the news. In what feels like a PR campaign by the Serbian government the potential arrest of Hadzic is being touted in the media as a possible offering to Del Ponte and the EU in return for the continuation of Serbian EU integration.

Sources quoted in the media say that if the EU refuses to continue the talks then the government will be forced to call a general election.

Are the Europeans impressed? Will Serbia go to the polls yet again this October?
Stay tuned.

Opinion Poll - and its potential impact

One should always take opinion polls with a pinch of salt but this one conducted in Serbia from the 21st - 24th July by Strategic Marketing (one of the most respected pollsters) has caused recent comment. Its part of the poll I mentioned below regarding Europe.

The usual 'how high can the Radicals go?' question reverted to the 'who is in the lead?' question which we haven't seen in Serbia for many months:

The Serbian Radical Party 36 percent
Democratic Party 31 percent
Democratic Party of Serbia 11 percent
Socialist Party of Serbia 5 percent

Parties G17, Nova Srbija, LDP (Cedo Jovanovic) follow on under the required census.

The poll is extensive and is part of the stats I gave below on the EU (hmm why are CESID and others only commenting now?) and provides interesting statistics on a number of other issues including the most pressing public concern (unemployment) and public optimism - people are predictably negative.

Conclusions? For the first time in many months, if elections were to be held tomorrow DS and DSS could form a government. That's a government without the need for hangers on, grand coalitions between parties etc. Both DS and DSS support is rising even if support for the Radical party is also in the ascendancy.

This throws a bit of a spanner in the works since senior members of the Kostunica government recently took the decision to continue with their current government until early next year. Not such an easy 'decision' to make when your coalition parties are threatening to steal the rug from under your feet. But Kostunica has a contingency plan involving bringing other parties into the government coalition to fill the gap.

The poll might put DSS in a slightly stronger negotiating position with these smaller parties - at least temporarily. After all Kostunica has less to lose than they do if he calls elections.

Serbian media roundup

This is the first in a regular series of fortnightly reports on a subject(s) in the Serbian media.

In conjunction with the OSCE Blic newspaper recently chose a female government - that is a government with every Minister represented by a woman. One woman was selected as Minister by readers every day out of a list of successful women.

Of the better known women Zorica Tomic (writer, lecturer) was chosen as Minister of Culture, Princess Jelisaveta Karadjordjevic was selected as Minister of the Diaspora, Milka Forcan (PR manager at Delta - Miskovic) as Trade and Tourism Minister. Ivana Dulic-Markovic (prominent because of the recent 'ustasa' jibe) was voted Vice Prime Minister and Ruzica Djindjic (wife of assassinated PM Djindjic, involved in a number of humanitarian and environmental organisations) chosen as Prime Minister.

Initially I was skeptical, although I support the rights of women, in my opinion there would be little difference in the world if women traded places with men in senior positions. That is because sex or gender is much less important than the culture of power and the system in which the human race currently finds itself. Thus, when you read the words of some editor or from some of the women involved that they are 'convinced that the world would be a better place' (if they were to run it) one feels a little dubious.

However, after consideration, I agree that this campaign of promoting the profile of professional women is beneficial to society. Equally there is something to be learnt from all of this in terms of future politics in Serbia. The women who were selected in the most senior roles are here to stay in Serbian politics / public life.
Ruzica Djindjic's vote was particularly impressive, 1689 votes, and the only candidate throughout the series that really made an impact on the public - she received thousands of votes and trounced her competitor for the PM spot, Vesna Pesic.

This confirms my opinion concerning Ruzica Djindjic - that if she wants to (and those who know her say that she will wait for her children to grow up before a final decision) high office is hers for the taking. Other opinion polls have confirmed this. Some months ago senior Radical Party officials decided on a policy of targeting her but when it became clear that she currently has no interest in office the attacks ceased. The implication is clear.